Tuesday, January 31, 2017

Winning the Home Run Hitter’s Game - Ralph Wanger

http://jasonzweig.com/winning-the-home-run-hitters-game/

By Jason Zweig | Jan. 29, 2007 11:30 a.m. ET

Winning the Home Run Hitter’s Game

Acorn Fund’s brilliant Ralph Wanger reveals how he found stocks that went on to rise twentyfold — and why most of investing is just doing the laundry.
Money Magazine, February 2007

Investing is not only about buying the right assets at the right time. It’s also about having rules that keep you from doing dumb things at the wrong time. Of all the great fund managers who have appeared in MONEY over the past decades, no one proved that point better (or more entertainingly) than Ralph Wanger, the wisecracking, philosophizing manager of the Acorn Fund. Wanger set out in 1970 to invest in small companies; through 2003 he did that and only that, with remarkable success. While the S&P 500 index climbed 12.1% a year, Acorn racked up an annualized 16.3%, one of the best records ever. Wanger, 72 and retired, recently met with MONEY’s Jason Zweig. As usual, Wanger asked nearly as many questions as he answered — and in the process found time to explain why life is like laundry, why focus matters and what Babe Ruth teaches us about stock picking.

Q. Why do you think you turned out to be a good investor?

A. At Acorn we had a clear philosophy — to be long-term holders of smaller companies with financial strength, entrepreneurial managers and understandable businesses — and we stuck to it. Sticking to it is key. Richard J. Daley’s one ambition was to become mayor of Chicago. Not President, not ambassador to the U.N., just mayor of Chicago. And since he already was mayor of Chicago, his life was much simpler. I thought that was worth emulating.

Q. Anything else?

A. I had always thought that to be a good investor you needed to hit a lot of singles and not strike out often. I was wrong. Investing, especially in small companies, is a home-run-hitter’s game.

Q. When did you learn that?

A. Late ’70s, maybe. The point is, 99% of what you do in life I classify as laundry. It’s stuff that has to be done, but you don’t do it better than anybody else, and it’s not worth much. Once in a while, though, you do something that changes your life dramatically. You decide to get married, you have a baby — or, if you’re an investor, you buy a stock that goes up twentyfold. So these rare events tend to dominate things. At Acorn, for example, I might have owned 300 stocks at any given time; most disappeared into the laundry basket. But 10 might go up many times in value, and they made all the difference.
Look, how many home runs did Babe Ruth hit in his best year?

Q. Sixty, in 1927.

A. How many times did he strike out that year?

Q. Darn, I used to know that. I think it was…

A. Why don’t you know?

Q. Uh, because when you hit that many home runs, it doesn’t matter how many times you strike out.

A. Exactly. You’re a great straight man.

Q. Thanks. So how many times did Babe Ruth strike out?

A. Don’t know. Not interested. It’s the winners that count. You want to have big positions in your winners, and the losers are trivial, eventually.

Q. But you can’t just run out and find a stock that’s going to rise twentyfold. No one can see that clearly into the future.

A. If you’re looking for a home run — a great investment for five years or 10 years or more — then the only way to beat this enormous fog that covers the future is to identify a long-term trend that will give a particular business some sort of edge.

Q. For example?

A. A $600 PlayStation now has more computing power than you could have gotten 20 years ago for $100,000. So you don’t want to invest in the computing power itself; those prices keep dropping. You want what’s downstream from the technology. Years ago I bought International Game Technology, which took a simple microprocessor, packaged it with coin slots, called it a slot machine and sold it to casinos for $8,000. It was a great stock.

Q. Are the principles of investing helpful elsewhere in life?

A. Being disciplined, being honest, having a set of rules and following them no matter what, thinking long term, controlling your emotions — these are all useful. But only so useful and only in part of life. You don’t want to treat your wife or your kids like an investment. I mean, you don’t want to say, “Kid, you got a D-minus in English. I’m selling you.” That doesn’t work.

Editor’s note: In 1927, Babe Ruth struck out 89 times.

Source: Money Magazine, February 2007

Wednesday, January 11, 2017

You can be next Warren Buffett with these tips



By Business Insider | Updated: Jan 11, 2017, 09.32 AM 

Warren Buffett’s long-term approach has allowed Berkshire Hathaway’s book value to grow by a compounded 19.7% annually. Here are tips to be a successful investor in 2017. 

QUALITY OVER QUANTITY 
While Buffett prefers buying companies outright, he knows that some companies aren’t for sale. Buffett’s willing to own a partial interest in them. Investors must embrace quality-first mindset. 

ACCEPT UNCERTAINTY 
Though Buffett does his homework before he buys a stock, even he doesn’t know what’s going to happen. Stocks can be unpredictable and decisions will be based on assumptions. 

CASH IS KING 
Warren’s cash stockpile is legendary, and it protects him when markets sour, and gives him flexibility to take action when prices are right. Investors ought to keep some money in cash. 

AVOID INACTION 
Buffett doesn’t hesitate when he’s presented with an idea that hits the mark. He believes that taking action is critical to realising the potential of an opportunity. Having confidence to take action is important. 

EYES ON THE PRIZE 
Buffett concentrates on his investment discipline. A healthy cash position and a long-term mindset gives him the confidence to avoid chasing stocks higher. 

PICK YOUR SPOT 
Buffett is willing to pay a fair price to invest in great businesses. By considering the importance of entry point more than exit, he can control his risk.

Howard Marks Memo on Expert Opinion


Some points from the memo

Thus two key observations can be made based on last week’s developments:

First, no one really knows what events are going to transpire.
And second, no one knows what the market’s reaction to those events will be.

There are no facts about the future, just opinions. Anyone who asserts with conviction what he thinks will happen in the macro future is overstating his foresight, whether out of ignorance, hubris or dishonesty.

Developments in economies, interest rates, currencies and markets aren’t the result of scientific processes. The involvement in them of people – with their emotions, foibles and biases – renders them highly unpredictable.As physicist Richard Feynman put it, “Imagine how much harder physics would be if electrons had feelings!”

It’s one thing to have opinions on these subjects, but something very different to be confident they’re right (and act on them).

Taking bold action based on forecasts of things that are uncertain isn’t just misguided; it’s dangerous. As Mark Twain said, “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble.It’s what you know for certain that just ain’t true.”

Everyone at Oaktree has opinions on the macro. And when we see extremes in markets and, especially, capital market behavior, we’re apt to take strong action. But we’re highly aware of what we don’t know, and when conditions are moderate or indistinct, we don’t bet heavily.

First, I had dinner with Warren Buffett about a year ago, and he pointed out that for a piece of information to be worth pursuing, it should be important, and it should be knowable.  These days, investors are clamoring more than ever for insights regarding the macro future, because it’s important: it moves markets.  But there’s a hitch: Warren and I both consider these things largely unknowable.  He rarely bases his investment actions on them, and neither does Oaktree.

Second, I want to include a final paragraph from the Observer article about the media that I mentioned earlier.  I think it’s golden:

If you wish to improve,” Epictetus [first-century Greek philosopher] once said, “be content to appear clueless or stupid in extraneous matters.”  One of the most powerful things we can do as a human being in our hyperconnected, 24/7 media world is say: “I don’t know.”  Or more provocatively, “I don’t care.”  Not about everything, of course – just most things.  Because most things don’t matter, and most news stories aren’t worth tracking.  (Emphasis added)