Sunday, April 24, 2016

Rubber prices soar as supply falls


Published: April 20, 2016 00:00 IST | Updated: April 20, 2016 05:38 IST 
KOCHI, April 20, 2016

Rubber prices soar as supply falls
K.A. Martin
Farmers want Rubber Board to assess production potential

Farmers want the Rubber Board to make a fresh assessment of the country’s capacity for natural rubber production in the wake of a shortage of local produce in the midst of a price improvement.

The price of the commodity has risen about 40 per cent between February and April. The spurt comes after a long slump though farmers say it may be temporary, considering a ban on import that was in effect till the end of March.

High-level meeting

Sources say the demand for an assessment of production capacity, by both small- and large-scale farms, came up at a high-level meeting of the board on Tuesday.

The benchmark RSS-4 grade closed at Rs.133 a kg at Kottayam on Tuesday.

The average price slumped to Rs.93.55 a kg in February, continuing a trend starting January 2015.

Rubber price fell from Rs.137.44 a kg in February 2015 to Rs.102.79 a kg in December. The slump continued in January 2016 with the price at Rs.97.80.

But March 2016 saw an upward trend, the average price for the month being Rs.108.12 a kg.

The price continued to rise steadily in April, the month opening RSS-4 at Rs.115 a kg. However, veteran trader N. Radhakrishnan advises patience before jumping into conclusions.

He says shortage of material is the key issue, but the price of crude oil has to be factored in.

Production

The Rubber Board estimates that India produced 5.63 lakh tonnes of natural rubber during last financial year against a demand for about 9.86 lakh tonnes. Imports stood at 4.54 lakh tonnes. However, farmers are learnt to have disputed the figures pointing out that India produced 9.13 lakh tonnes of the commodity during 2012-13 against a demand for 9.43 lakh tonnes.

Serious issue

Rajiv Budhraja, director general, Automotive Tyre Manufacturers’ Association, says that despite the price rising about 40 per cent, availability of NR has emerged as a serious issue.

Mohinder Gupta, president, All India Rubber Industries Association, says that volatility disrupted the planning process, especially at small rubber units.

MSMEs signed long-term contracts and volatility would hit profitability.

Siby Monippally, representing farmers, says the price rise has been triggered by a shortage of rubber in the market. There is no tapping. Even if farmers want to tap rubber, it is not possible because of the heat wave like condition, he said.

The supply situation in the international market is similar, with Indonesia and Thailand facing similar shortages, he added.

The price of the commodity has risen about 40 per cent between February and April

Thursday, April 21, 2016

Dewan Housing in talks to buy Andromeda for up to Rs250 crore


Last Modified: Fri, Apr 22 2016. 04 42 AM IST

Dewan Housing in talks to buy Andromeda for up to Rs250 crore

The Andromeda acquisition will help Dewan expand its reach to smaller cities

Mumbai: Dewan Housing Finance Ltd is in talks to acquire Andromeda Sales and Distribution Pvt. Ltd, one of the largest distributors of loans, mortgage, financing and financial instruments in India, said two persons familiar with the development who asked not to be identified.

The Mumbai-based financial services holding company Casa Capital Management Ltd holds about 80% stake in Andromeda. The deal size is pegged at Rs.200 -250 crore, one of the two persons said. Both added that the talks are at an advanced stage.

Altamount Capital Management Pvt. Ltd is advising Casa Capital on the sale.

“On behalf of its clients, Altamount Capital is in discussions with a few strategic Investors on the acquisition of Andromeda,” said Richa Karpe, director, Altamount Capital. She declined to comment on the valuation or the identity of the potential buyers.

A Dewan Housing spokesperson did not respond to mails, calls and text messages seeking comment.

Sunil Pophale, director at Casa Capital Management, did not respond to text messages and calls seeking comment.

V. Swaminathan, chief executive officer at Andromeda Loans, did not respond to queries.

The Andromeda acquisition will help Dewan expand its reach to smaller cities, the first person quoted above said.

Andromeda Group, acquired by the Malaysian venture capital fund Navis Capital in 2007 for Rs.180 crore, was sold to Casa Capital in 2012 after carving out the loan distribution business.

Started as a direct sales associate for Citibank NA in 1991 by V. Swaminathan, Andromeda currently operates across 16 cities and has facilitated the disbursal of loans worth more than Rs.5,000 crore, according to its website.

Andromeda mostly operates through its website andromedaloans.com, and distributes credit cards, mortgages, unsecured business loans and car loans. Andromeda has partnered with 35 banks and financial institutions, the website adds.

In 2015, Andromeda acquired financial products comparison website Apnapaisa.com in a stock and cash deal.

Andromeda competes with other online aggregators such as BankBazaar and LoanAdda.

BankBazaar boasts of more than 9 million visitors per month and offer 11 financial products across 85 financial brands. LoanAdda provides products of 40 banking partners.

Private equity and venture capital investors have shown a lot of interest in the space.

Last year, A&A Dukaan Financial Services Pvt. Ltd, operator of BankBazaar.com, raised Rs.375 crore from investors led by Amazon.com Inc., Fidelity Growth Partners, Mousse Partners Ltd and existing investors Sequoia Capital and Walden International. Another online distributor Policybazaar.com raised Rs.300 crore from PremjiInvest, Steadview Capital and existing investors Tiger Global Management and Ribbit Capital last year.

In January, online insurance policy aggregator easypolicy.com raised Rs.15 crore in a first of funding led by Ronnie Screwvala’s Unilazer Ventures.

“Financial services distribution businesses have seen quite a few transactions in recent times.Technology has changed the way distribution of financial products happens and specific data analytics are used to map investment patterns. In that context, platforms which use technology in the distribution process have significant value,” said Sanjeev Krishan, partner and leader for private equity and transaction services practice at PwC.

According to start-up tracker Tracxn Technologies Pvt. Ltd, out of the total 163 online financial service aggregators, 76 firms were launched in 2015 and 11 were launched this year.

BankBazaar, the pioneer in online lending, has the largest monthly visitors of 9.1 million (1 February to 29 March ), followed by PaisaBazaar (part of PolicyBazaar.com) with 3.3 lakh monthly visitors, Deal4Loans with 2.5 lakh monthly visitors, RupeePower with 1.8 lakh monthly visitors and ApnaPaisa (acquired by Andromeda) with 1.4 million monthly visitors, according to Tracxn.

Dewan reported a 16.4% rise in net profit to Rs.186 crore for the third quarter ended December, 2015 on higher loan disbursements. Its total income increased to Rs.1,885 crore from Rs.1,525 crore. The loan disbursement of the company for the quarter also rose by 31% to Rs 6,428.37 crore. As on 31 December, Dewan had a total loan book of around Rs.59,000 crore. The company posted a revenue of Rs.5981 crore for FY15.

On Thursday, shares of DHFL fell 0.63% to Rs.205.25 each on BSE.

Centrum Group appoints Jaspal Bindra as new chairman


Last Modified: Thu, Apr 21 2016. 10 19 PM IST

Centrum Group appoints Jaspal Bindra as new chairman

Chandir Gidwani divests around 25% of his personal holdings in the group to Jaspal Bindra

Mumbai: Leading independent brokerage and financial services player Centrum Group on Thursday appointed Jaspal Bindra, ex-Asia Pacific CEO Standard Chartered Bank, as its new chairman in place of Chandir Gidwani who will continue to be the main promoter.

Gidwani has divested around 25% of his personal holdings in the group he set up over 20 years ago to Bindra who has spent three decades working at MNCs, sources told PTI, who, however, could not confirm the value of the stake sale.

For 55-year-old Bindra, who was one of the poster boys of the Indian management talents in global financial markets for over three decades, this is a home coming.

He will be the executive chairman at the diversified Centrum Group and with his considerable stake in the company this is also an entrepreneurial journey for him.

The Centrum Group, set up in 1995 by Gidwani and Khushrooh Byramjee, has 125 branches spanning 48 cities and offers integrated financial services to corporate and retail clients with its investment banking (equity & debt), wealth management, institutional broking and forex services, serving over 1 million customers.

The group also has an NBFC for retail lending and has applied to NHB for a licence to foray into housing finance.

“This is the perfect time for Jaspal to come in as our executive chairman. With his rich and extensive global experience, I am sure he will be able to accelerate our growth. His strategy and execution track record will be extremely helpful as we enter the next chapter of growth,” Gidwani said.

Bindra’s last position at Standard Chartered was as the chief executive of the Asia Pacific region. In February 2015, the bank announced that he would be leaving the company in major global revamp.

“With its reputation, commitment to values, profitable growth track record, large client base and a national presence, the Centrum Group is well-poised for higher growth. I look forward to working closely both with the promoters and the proven executive team,” Bindra said.

Out of the successful global career of over 30 years, he has spent 18 years with StanC alone. He joined the Asia-focused British bank in 1998 and became a director in 2010. He has served in leadership roles in Mumbai and several other Southeast Asian centres heading treasury, capital markets, investment and consumer banking. He is among a handful of Indian-born executives who have reached the pinnacles of the global financial industry.

Bindra, who grew up in Calcutta, joined Bank of America after an MBA from XLRI Jamshedpur in 1984. He later joined UBS and moved to Standard Chartered in 1998 as chief executive for India. He is credited for making Standard Chartered India one of the three largest international banks in the country by assets and its third-largest profit and revenue driver.

Tuesday, April 19, 2016

IDFC Bank wins ‘India Bond House’ 2015 at IFR Asia


India Infoline News Service | Mumbai | April 04, 2016 17:39 IST
The award validates the strength of IDFC Bank’s Debt Capital Market (DCM) business in creating landmark transactions.

IDFC Bank, subsidiary of the country’s leading integrated infrastructure finance company, IDFC Ltd., has been named the ‘India Bond House’ for the year 2015, by International Financing Review Asia (IFR Asia). 

The award validates the strength of IDFC Bank’s Debt Capital Market (DCM) business in creating landmark transactions. It also recognizes the bank for adding depth and breadth to Indian bond markets in 2015 by leading the key trend of bringing infrastructure companies to rupee capital markets to repay high-cost bank debt. “The lender arranged cost-effective financings for a range of infrastructure clients as it transformed from a non-banking financial company into a full-fledged universal bank,” IFR Asia said.

The India Bond House Award recognizes IDFC Bank’s successful execution during 2015 of numerous plain-vanilla bond deals and several innovative and landmark transactions, including IIFCL & ADB credit enhanced bonds, annuity-road project bonds, simultaneous super-senior, senior and mezzanine bond tranches for annuity-road project, corporate green bonds, and bonds with sponsor’s partial credit enhancement.

Besides these and prior to 2015, IDFC Bank has successfully structured many other unique bond transactions. Some of these include, like India’s only inflation-indexed bonds for a corporate, India’s first office collateralized-mortgage backed securities (CMBS), first-of-its-kind re-investment yield protected, conditionally callable bonds, largest future-flow securitisation in the energy sector, and many more. Recently, IDFC acted as arrangers to first ever bond issuance in transmission sector securitising asset cash-flows upto 17.5years.

Speaking on the award, Ajay Mahajan, Head - Commercial & Wholesale Banking, IDFC Bank, said, “The award makes note of IDFC Bank’s innovative approach and superior capabilities in structuring complex transactions. We would like to thank our clients for placing their trust in IDFC Bank. We also thank IFR Asia for giving us this recognition.”   

Ajay Mahajan received the award with Jayen Shah, Head – Debt Capital Markets, IDFC Bank, from Steve Garton, Editor of IFR Asia, at a function held in Hong Kong recently. The IFR Asia Awards are part of the Thomson Reuters Awards for Excellence, recognising corporate and individual success in the global financial industry

Firms are now looking to invest in MFIs after RBI awarded small finance bank licenses


Firms are now looking to invest in MFIs after RBI awarded small finance bank licenses
By Atmadip Ray, ET Bureau | 20 Apr, 2016, 06.06AM IST

Grameen America, a not-forprofit microfinance organisation founded by Nobel Prize winner Muhammad Yunus of Bangladesh for helping women living in poverty in the US, receives 360-degree support from a diverse group of American corporations such as Apple Inc, Bank of America, Google Inc, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo Community Lending & Investments.

The for-profit microfinance companies in India, by contrast, have been loners in their own backyard. They have rarely got funds from banks; those a bit fortunate got funding from overseas private equity funds only to find themselves under mounting pressure from investors to boost returns. Local investors were hardly interested in the business of micro-lending in the last decade. But that is changing.

The sector that makes credit accessible to the poor without collateral has started becoming more relevant to local corporations and institutional investors, such as banks, with Reserve Bank of India awarding eight out of 10 small finance bank licences to microfinance companies, validating their capability to deliver on the field. RBI has also allowed MFIs to work as business correspondents, creating a large cross-selling potential and opportunities for investors to leverage their equity better. Since January, two private sector banks — IDFC and DCB — purchased direct equity in MFIs and one more is believed to be exploring similar possibilities. Kerala-based gold loan nonbanking financial company Manappuram Finance acquired 71% stake in Asirvad Microfinance last year.

Banks as well as corporates are coming in as equity investors as they look to seize opportunities created by MFIs' last-mile credit delivery skills, says SKS Microfinance president Dilli Raj. "The distribution network strength that MFIs enjoy gives huge cross-selling opportunities," he says, suggesting MFIs as business correspondents could do demand aggregation for products such as consumer durables or even two-wheelers allowing both lenders and producers to cash in. Corporates shed their apathy towards MFIs after 2011 when RBI started regulating the sector, providing stability to it.

The likes of Bajaj Holdings, Tata Capital Growth Fund and electrical equipment maker Havells have come on board as investors in several MFIs in the last five years. Ananya Birla, daughter of industrialist Kumar Mangalam and Neerja Birla, invested a tiny part of her family fortune to build Svatantra Microfin, which facilitated loans of Rs 186 crore to 82,171 borrowers within four years of its formation. The Birla scion now dreams of converting Svatantra into a small finance bank. With microfinance companies showing the potential to grow unhindered at least for the next five years, more corporates and banks may look to partner them. The sector grew at 50%-plus over the last two fiscals taking the cumulative loan book size to over Rs 42,000 crore. The micro-lenders are generating cash surplus and there is a sense of economic stability. MFIs have penetrated just about onefifth of the market, leaving vast opportunity for every stakeholder, says Manoj Kumar Nambiar, president of Microfinance Institutions Network, or MFIN, a self-regulator that has developed a set of code of conduct for members to follow. "(They have) return on equity (ROE) greater than 15%, yearly growth of over 50% and social impact... evoking interest from the mainstream corporate sector," Nambiar says. The number of beneficiaries of loans from microfinance institutions stands at 2.88 crore.

The average loan size for each beneficiary has also grown to Rs 17,917 from Rs 14,409 last year. MFIs' outstanding borrowings stood at Rs 36,439 crore at the end of December 2015, representing an 86% growth, according to statistics released by MFIN. The story was vastly different even half-a-decade back. L&T Finance was the sole member of India Inc to explore opportunities in micro-lending since 2008. No other corporate was ready to take the risk in a sector that was not regulated and was largely dependent on overseas private equity funds for growth.

An administrative ordinance by the Andhra Pradesh government in 2010 to stop local MFIs from recovering money from borrowers had led to a collapse of many companies and crippled others. A big shift took place in the year that followed. RBI entered the scene with its set of rules for MFIs registered as nonbanking finance companies. Regulatory clarity, code of conduct and lending on the basis of borrowers' credit score were some of the factors, besides economic reasons, that unlocked the local investment floodgate into the industry. Microfinance also qualifies as priority sector lending and, hence, banks are keen to back micro-lenders.

Not only have they turned more liberal in lending to MFIs, those in the private sector are even buying direct stake in many institutions. IDFC Bank acquired a 9.99% stake in ASA International India Microfinance for about Rs 8.5 crore in January, the first investment by a lender. Two months later, DCB Bank took 5.81% equity interest in Annapurna Microfinance for Rs 9.99 crore. "Microfinance has become a good asset class with low default rate and, hence, a good source of diversification through bulk lending," says Abhijit Roy, managing director at Unitus Capital, which helps MFIs raise capital. The capital that flowed into the sector is helping it to be back on a robust growth path. It's a win-win for all stakeholders.

Borrowers get protected from monopolistic exploitation by money lenders, banks and companies get access to a bigger market, which they could have never reached, and investors get the capitalistic share of profit from the poor. Ujjivan raised $96 million in March last year from a group of overseas investors such as US's CDC and Bajaj Holdings, one of India's top 20 business houses. Tata Capital Growth Fund, India's leading private equity fund, QRG Enterprises, a holding company for Havells, and Vallabh Bhansali invested in Janalakhsmi in 2013. "Many corporates are keen to have a banking licence and they feel that with microfinance exposure under their belt, getting a banking licence could be easier," Roy said.

Monday, April 18, 2016

How microfinance got its mojo back - Economic Times


Microfinance industry is out of an unprecedent crisis, thanks to regulations, diligent borrowers

By Shailesh Menon, ET Bureau | 19 Apr, 2016, 06.24AM IST

The aroma of flaming gingelly oil wafted through the air as 16 women employees of Thrissur based Global Chips & Foods braced themselves for another long day at work. A black wooden board, hung on a recently white-washed wall, listed out their day's chores: 20 kilograms of tapioca chips and 20 kgs potato chips.

The women — wearing maroon uniforms and white head-caps — were all raring to go. Their "company" had just secured orders from over a dozen supermarket chains, apart from countless retail outlets across Kerala and a few buyers from the Gulf and even Thailand. Microfinance industry is out of an unprecedent crisis, thanks to regulations, diligent borrowers Global Chips, started with an initial loan of Rs 5,000 from ESAF Microfinance nine years ago, logs a monthly production of 65,000 packets (of fries), sales turnover worth Rs 3 lakh and profit of around Rs 70,000. "Microfinance helped me build my company.

It provided me with money whenever I wanted it," says 44-year-old Sindhu Sethumadhavan, the proprietor of Global Chips, who pays Rs 1,410 every week on her outstanding microfinance loan of Rs 1.5 lakh. Sethumadhavan is part of a growing tribe of small entrepreneurs whose businesses were seeded by microfinance. This clan had shrunk in the wake of the Andhra Pradesh (AP) microfinance crisis of 2009-10, triggered by a series of borrower suicides, allegedly on account of unscrupulous MFI (microfinance institutions) practices of charging high interest rates and excessive lending, leading to increased indebtedness among poor borrowers, and turning to coercion to recover those loans.


The industry itself took some hard knocks. Asset under management (outstanding loans or gross loan portfolio) fell Rs 3,000 crore to close at Rs 20,500 crore in 2011-12. MFIs that had large-scale operations in AP suffered the most. Non-repayment of loans by borrowers (at the behest of politicians and other community leaders) resulted in AP portfolios of most MFIs declining by 35%.

"Post the AP crisis, there was a massive overhauling of practices. MFI were brought under strict rules and regulations," says Bindu Ananth, chair of IFMR Holdings, a leading financial inclusion platform. Microfinance, which was skulking in the corners of that unprecedented crisis, is now out and about. Of the 10 small finance bank licences given by RBI in 2015, eight were bagged by MFIs. And a bunch of MFIs are now preparing to launch IPOs.

"The greenshoots you're seeing now is a fallout of the AP crisis," says Ananth. One key reason for the resurgence of microfinance is the presence of diligent borrowers like Sethumadhavan, who says microfinance loans should not be used for personal purposes and were drawn by the strict measures put in place. They helped the industry rebuild faith and confidence among clients.

Crisis Management As it happened, the immediate aftermath of the crisis was painful.

"There was a lot of external intervention then. We could not even get in touch with borrowers who were willing to repay," reminisces S Dilli Raj, the CFO of SKS Microfinance, which suffered the most during the AP crisis. SKS witnessed a near-70% slump in its loan book when it was forced to exit AP.

"We had to shrink our loan book to make up for our losses in AP. Out of the Rs 1,496 crore we loaned out to borrowers in AP, we could only collect Rs 130 crore. We had to write off loans worth about Rs 1,300 crore over several quarters," Dilli Raj adds. The AP government was the first to review and censure.

The AP State Government Ordinance imposed stringent operating guidelines — mainly tightening screws around lending rates and collection mechanisms employed by MFIs till then.

Meanwhile, the RBI was waiting for the 'Malegam Committee Report on Microfinance' before listing out its own set of guidelines. The regulator turned in its first set of regulations in 2011 deeming for-profit MFIs as NBFC-MFIs (a new category of nonbanking finance companies). It also directed all MFIs to maintain sufficient 'net owned funds' and structure portfolios with 85% of lending to "qualifying assets." Microfinance industry is out of an unprecedent crisis, thanks to regulations, diligent borrowers

In subsequent amendments, the regulator put in place lending limits per borrower, capped interest rates, employed measures to reduce excessive indebtedness, explicitly stated tenure of loans and worked out loan repayment schedules. (See RBI Measures...). These moves seemed like a bitter pill then, but were the ideal remedy for the industry's ills. "Prior to the AP crisis, there were no rules governing microfinance industry.

There were no models or reference points in terms of lending rates or how much we could lend," says Equitas' founder PN Vasudevan, adding, "these mandates came only after the crisis; it gave the industry a blueprint to operate."


Visible Greenshoots The Indian microfinance industry is dominated by NBFC-MFIs with an 88% market share. These institutions have been grouped on the basis of their 'gross loan portfolio' (GLP). As per Microfinance Institutions Network (MFIN) data, there are 18 small MFIs with GLP less than Rs 100 crore, another 18 medium-sized MFIs with GLP between Rs 100 crore and Rs 500 crore and 20 large MFIs with loan book above Rs 500 crore.

Large MFIs account for nearly 90% of industry GLP. Even though the number of active MFIs has fallen from about 70 in the pre AP crisis era to just about 55 currently, the industry loan book has leapfrogged 130% to Rs 47,200 crore in 2014-15. Average loan ticket size (first disbursement) has also grown from Rs 14,800 to about Rs 18,000 currently, according to industry sources (see Back With a Bang).

Post the crisis, MFIs started spreading out their activity to newer territories. Instead of focusing on captive borrowers (which was banned by RBI when it introduced the 'twolender rule), the industry started approaching newer set of borrowers. This strategy widened their customer base. Borrowers too, warmed up to MFIs they had no other source to get non-collateralised debt.

"Loan portfolio of top 40 MFIs would tip Rs 70,000 crore by March 2017," predicts Krishnan Sitaraman, senior director, Crisil Ratings. "There's robustness in the system now."

MFIs, for their part, are keen to beef up their loan books as only that would increase their profitability. Prior to the AP crisis, MFIs used to lend at rates as high as 40%. This, however, ended immediately after the crisis.

Now, MFIs can charge a margin of 10% and add up cost of funds (margin of 10% + cost of funds) as interest on their loans. This formula pegs rates at 23-24%. "MFIs are trying to reduce their costs and mark up profitability by increasing loan volumes. This is turning out to be a good strategy as a few large funds have managed to bring down their rates to as low as 19-19.5%," says Ananth.

The rising profitability of large MFIs like SKS and Equitas is an indication that the industry has started capturing 'economies of scale', driving up loan volumes. The large MFIs are already seeing a jump in their operating margins.

After listing huge losses in 2012 and 2013, SKS turned around in 2014 (post write-off of bad loans) when it reported a PAT of Rs 70 crore. Last year, it reported profits of Rs 187 crore on revenues of Rs 724 crore.

Equitas Holdings, now on the road to becoming a publicly listed company, declared an adjusted PAT of Rs 107 crore last fiscal. The Rs 2,170 crore Equitas public issue — which closed bids on April 7 — was oversubscribed 17 times. Another MFI, Ujjivan Financial Services, is also preparing for a public issue to raise about Rs 650 crore.

Industry watchers expect more listings in the months to come as MFIs that have received 'in-principle licence' to start small finance banks (SFBs) are required to reduce foreign shareholding to 49%. Apart from Ujjivan and Equitas, Disha Microfin, ESAF Microfinance, Janalakshmi Financial Services, Suryoday Microfinance, Utkarsh Microfinance and RGVN North East Microfinance have received the regulator's nod to operate as SFBs.

"We're seeing a lot of MFIs raising capital. Even banks are not reluctant lenders anymore. They're buying securitised assets under their PSL (priority sector lending) mandate now," says Vishal Mehta, cofounder of Lok Capital. "Even opportunistic investors, who abandoned MFIs during the AP crisis, are coming back now."

The microfinance industry itself pulled up its socks post AP. According to Mehta, the industry is reaping benefits of enhanced collection efficiency, which is currently upwards of 95%. "A lot of technology is now being used to streamline and make the collection process more efficient. Almost all leading MFIs use digitized data... Manual entries have gone out completely at least at the ground level," he says.

The industry is also making good use of credit bureaus to weed out delinquent borrowers and restrict over-lending to borrowers. As per RBI rules, a borrower should not get loans from more than two MFIs. The industry keeps a tab on this rule ('two-lender rule') by referring to credit bureau records. "MFIs are using our services for all loans disbursed at their end. We maintain records of borrowers who are a part of a cluster or self-help group as well," says Harshala Chandorkar, COO of CIBIL.

Deep industry-level focus around "disciplined lending" is yielding positive results as only 1% of loan instalments are '30-dayspast-due' currently. Over 98% of loans are disbursed within the due date, say industry trackers. "Defaults are sporadic when you compare with NPAs in the banking system," says Paul Thomas, founder - MD of ESAF Microfinance. "Industry NPA has fallen from 0.8% to 0.3% currently. MFIs are very careful while disbursing loans. Some of us even insist on Aadhar cards to complete the KYC process."

MFIs now understand portfolio concentration risk much better than the pre-crisis days. These days MFIs prefer to spread out their loan books across different states to reduce 'state risk' (or portfolio concentration risk). MFIs are moving away from time-tested southern states to newer areas in North and North Eastern states.

"There's an effort to move to untapped markets now like the NorthEast. By moving newer regions, MFIs are diversifying their liabilities," says Ananth. Going ahead, MFIs with in-principle SFB licences would benefit from low-cost funding in the form of deposits, thus improving profitability. An SFB licence would also allow the eight MFIs to offer a range of credit products to individual borrowers. But this is not likely to make NBFC-MFIs redundant.

"Pure MFIs have more linkages with customers at the grassroot level. Banks do not have the bandwidth to match the development focus of an MFI," opines Thomas.

Echoing Thomas, Dilli Raj of SKS says: "We've not received SFB licence, but that will not affect us in a big way. We've easy access to cheap funds as a result of good credit ratings. This market is big enough for NBFC-MFIs to survive."

Friday, April 15, 2016

Warren Buffet partnership letters 1967 - 69

Some snippets

1967 Letters

The evaluation of securities and businesses for investment purposes has always involved a mixture of qualitative and quantitative factors. At the one extreme, the analyst exclusively oriented to qualitative factors would say. "Buy the right company (with the right prospects, inherent industry conditions, management, etc.) and the price will take care of itself.” On the other hand, the quantitative spokesman would say, “Buy at the right price and the company (and stock) will take care of itself.” As is so often the pleasant result in the securities world, money can be made with either approach. And, of course, any analyst combines the two to some extent - his classification in either school would depend on the relative weight he assigns to the various factors and not to his consideration of one group of factors to the exclusion of the other group.

Interestingly enough, although I consider myself to be primarily in the quantitative school (and as I write this no one has come back from recess - I may be the only one left in the class), the really sensational ideas I have had over the years have been heavily weighted toward the qualitative side where I have had a "high-probability insight". This is what causes the cash register to really sing. However, it is an infrequent occurrence, as insights usually are, and, of course, no insight is required on the quantitative side - the figures should hit you over the head with a baseball bat. So the really big money tends to be made by investors who are right on qualitative decisions but, at least in my opinion, the more sure money tends to be made on the obvious quantitative decisions.

Such statistical bargains have tended to disappear over the years. This may be due to the constant combing and recombing of investments that has occurred during the past twenty years, without an economic convulsion such as that of the ‘30s to create a negative bias toward equities and spawn hundreds of new bargain securities. It may be due to the new growing social acceptance, and therefore usage (or maybe it's vice versa - I'll let the behaviorists figure it out) of takeover bids which have a natural tendency to focus on bargain issues. It may be due to the exploding ranks of security analysts bringing forth an intensified scrutiny of issues far beyond what existed some years ago. Whatever the cause, the result has been the virtual disappearance of the bargain issue as determined quantitatively - and thereby of our bread and butter. There still may be a few from time to time. There will also be the occasional security where I am really competent to make an important qualitative judgment. This will offer our best chance for large profits. Such instances will. however, be rare. Much of our good performance during the past three years has been due to a single idea of this sort.

1968 Letter

The investment management business, which I used to severely chastise in this section for excessive lethargy, has now swung in many quarters to acute hypertension. One investment manager, representing an organization (with an old established name you would recognize) handling mutual funds aggregating well over $1 billion, said upon launching a new advisory service in 1968:

“The complexities of national and international economics make money management a full-time job. A good money manager cannot maintain a study of securities on a week-by-week or even a day-by-day basis. Securities must be studied in a minute-by-minute program.”

Wow!

This sort of stuff makes me feel guilty when I go out for a Pepsi. When practiced by large and increasing numbers of highly motivated people with huge amounts of money on a limited quantity of suitable securities, the result becomes highly unpredictable. In some ways it is fascinating to watch and in other ways it is appalling.

1969 Letter

About eighteen months ago I wrote to you regarding changed environmental and personal factors causing me to modify our future performance objectives. The investing environment I discussed at that time (and on which I have commented in various other letters has generally become more negative and frustrating as time has passed. Maybe I am merely suffering from a lack of mental flexibility. (One observer commenting on security analysts over forty stated: “They know too many things that are no longer true.”)

However, it seems to me that: (1) opportunities for investment that are open to the analyst who stresses quantitative factors have virtually disappeared, after rather steadily drying up over the past twenty years; (2) our $100 million of assets further eliminates a large portion of this seemingly barren investment world, since commitments of less than about $3 million cannot have a real impact on our overall performance, and this virtually rules out companies with less than about $100 million of common stock at market value; and (3) a swelling interest in investment performance has created an increasingly short-term oriented and (in my opinion) more speculative market.

The October 9th, 1967 letter stated that personal considerations were the most important factor among those causing me to modify our objectives. I expressed a desire to be relieved of the (self-imposed) necessity of focusing 100% on BPL. I have flunked this test completely during the last eighteen months. The letter said: I hope limited objectives will make for more limited effort. It hasn't worked out that way. As long as I am “on stage”, publishing a regular record and assuming responsibility for management of what amounts to virtually 100% of the net worth of many partners, I will never be able to put sustained effort into any non-BPL activity. If I am going to participate publicly. I can't help being competitive. I know I don't want to be totally occupied with out-pacing an investment rabbit all my life. The only way to slow down is to stop.