Major relief for Crompton Greaves

http://www.business-standard.com/article/opinion/major-relief-for-crompton-greaves-116030900600_1.html

The company has sealed a deal to sell its ailing international power business, which will help cut debt

Hamsini Karthik 

March 9, 2016 Last Updated at 22:21 IST

It has been back-to-back gains for Crompton Greaves. First, it firmed up on the demerger of its consumer business, which lit up its stock price by 12 per cent. Now, the sale of its international power business reaching a closure lifted its stock by nine per cent on the bourses on Wednesday.

The company's international business valued at €115 million or Rs 850 crore and sold to US-based private equity First Reserve International on a cash and debt free basis, will give the much-needed respite to Crompton Greaves. Most analysts were not attributing much value to the international power business, given its 20 quarters of cash-loss record. Earlier, expectations were that sale of this business would not fetch more than Rs 400-500 crore. However, now realising Rs 850 crore, analysts at Kotak Research attribute a fair value of Rs 40-45 a share to the power and industrials business (non-consumer business) against its earlier valuation of Rs 22-28 apiece. Motilal Oswal Securities, too, has revised its FY17 earnings per share target from Rs 3.8 for its non-consumer (power and industrials) business to Rs 5.3.

Although the money will come in a staggered manner, it will help Crompton cut its debt burden significantly from Rs 900 crore as on December 31, 2015 to nearly zero. Its management has guided for zero interest cost with the closure of the sale. Most importantly, the company’s profitability would get a boost. If these assets are excluded, the management said theoretically it would add Rs 350 crore to profits in FY16.

Following its sale, in FY17, while Crompton Greaves now expects to clock revenues of Rs 6,500 crore (down 35 per cent compared to FY15 revenues, largely due to sale of international power business) from the non-consumer businesses, net profit is pegged at Rs 325 crore; up 55 per cent compared to FY15. With the automation business also expected to be sold in FY17, its overseas exposure will be restricted to drives and rotating machines business, which are value-accretive. That said, the fate of Rs 1,200 crore worth of loans advanced by Crompton to its international entities is the only overhang, where it might have to take a write-off if no effective means of handling the same is discovered. For now, the Street is building in zero recovery from these.

Going ahead, with the budgetary push for infrastructure sector and prospects for the domestic non-consumer business inching up, FY17 holds promise for Crompton Greaves.

Re-rating for Crompton Greaves' consumer biz

http://www.business-standard.com/article/opinion/re-rating-for-crompton-greaves-consumer-biz-116030401176_1.html

Re-rating for Crompton Greaves' consumer biz

Focus on brand building, expansion of product basket and channels will aid earnings growth going forward

Sheetal Agarwal  March 04, 2016 Last Updated at 21:35 IST

Come March 16 and the Crompton Greaves stock will trade ex-consumer business - Crompton Greaves Consumer Products (CGCP). Most analysts are positive on the consumer business, which is likely to list sometime in April, and believe it has the potential to re-rate going forward. Consider this: CGCP is expected to list somewhere between Rs 100 to Rs 110 a share. But, some analysts such as Misal Singh of Religare Capital Markets ascribe a fair value of Rs 120 to Rs 140 to the consumer company, whereas Macquarie Capital and MOSL assign a value of Rs 140 and Rs 125, respectively. Crompton Greaves’ shareholders will get one share in CGCP for every share held; the current price of Crompton Greaves is Rs 141, which indicates the potential for value-unlocking.

Meanwhile, the new management is likely to step up focus on brand building, consumer-centric innovation and enhancing its reach to non-electrical channel such as e-commerce, multi-brand retail, among others, to boost the consumer business. Notably, against three per cent (as a per cent of sales) advertising and promotional spends incurred by Havells, CGCP spends only one per cent towards these activities.

The company plans to improve this going forward and leverage the brand ‘Crompton’ to increase its presence in appliances and switchgear segments. Its core products (fans, lighting, pumps) stand to gain from increasing income in the hands of consumers after the seventh pay commission as well as higher thrust on the rural economy. The company’s pumps business (20 per cent of revenues) also stands to gain from halving of excise duty on pumps from 12.5 per cent to six per cent in the recently announced Budget. In this backdrop, Macquarie Capital believes CGCP should trade at similar valuations to Havells on account of the former’s higher earnings growth expectations going forward. Assuming a listing price band of Rs 100-110, CGCP is valued at 18-19 times FY18 estimated earnings.

Havells, on the other hand, trades at about 25 times FY18 estimated earnings. CGCP’s revenues have grown 15 per cent over FY12-FY15, which is in line with industry. Analysts at MOSL believe the company could post 14 per cent revenue growth in FY17. However, Ebitda margins could come down a bit as CGCP scales up advertising, sales and promotional spends going forward. 

Strong brand identity, robust distribution network and healthy financials are some of the key strengths of CGCP, which aims to grow ahead of the industry. On the downside, half of CGCP's revenues are outsourced, which includes imports. Thus, its earnings are vulnerable to any sharp volatility in the rupee, which investors will have to keep an eye on.